Over the last few weeks, you may have heard about an oncoming strike by workers at Canadian Pacific, one of North America’s most important rail carriers. Fears swirled last week as the strike deadline loomed and this newest delay looked poised to become the next week’s long logistics disaster in a series of serious delays, following in the steps of previous major crises’ like the trucker convoy and November’s B.C floods. Though the strikes did happen, they saw a quick resolution, a welcome surprise to those in the industry.

Let’s rewind a bit. CP Management and the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) had been at the table for weeks trying to reach a new collective agreement. The talks, broadly speaking, were about the usual union vs management topics; increased wages, benefits, pension, and the like. As talks began to deteriorate each side took increasingly intense action to ratchet up the pressure on negotiations. Way back on March 4th, the Teamsters voted 96.7% to begin striking on March 16th, should the talks not result in a new agreement. Though this ended up being extended by a few days, as mediators seemed to be coming closer to an agreement, talks once again began to come off the rails (pun intended).

• TCRC – Arbitration Announcement
• CP Rail – Arbitration Announcement

On March 16th CP sent out a notice that they would be locking out the teamsters on March 20th in order to speed up negotiations and limit the amount of uncertainty for customers. When the 20th rolled around service did indeed stop, though it’s unclear who was responsible as both sides pointed the finger at the other when asked by media. Regardless, service was stopped for less than 48 hours before the news broke of an end to the stoppage.

CP employees were back to work by noon on Tuesday (CP Rail’s Speedy Strike) as both sides mutually agreed to binding arbitration in order to resolve their disagreements. As is the case with most arbitrations, it’s unlikely that either side will end up completely happy with the result. However, the compromise is being lauded by industry stakeholders as a huge success, and a much-needed reprieve from the onslaught of delays that have been unfolding over the past few weeks and months.

The Big Impact of a Little Strike

One of the reasons that this service disruption was resolved so quickly, likely had to do with the amount of pushback received by both sides from industry experts, governments, and businesses.

Before the strike had even begun there were already calls for the federal government to push through back to work legislation if service was effected. At a time when supply chains are already under so much stress, many were pushing for rail service to be considered an essential service. This was largely because, one of the industries most affected by the stoppage was agriculture, which relies on rail for both the export of goods and for delivering crucial fertilizers and other feedstocks. On the first day of the strike, U.S businesses and allegedly even some in the U.S government were calling on Canada to put a swift end to the strike.

Many have worried about how this, even very short, stoppage in service might affect the trade relationship between Canada and the U.S. Though on it’s on it wouldn’t be cause for much concern, combined with the recent blockages at major border crossings, this stoppage could make U.S companies reconsider some of their relationships north of the border as Canada somewhat loses its reputation as a reliable trade partner.

Though the stoppage may create some delays for shippers in the coming days, the much more concerning effect is the damage it may do to Canada’s most important trade relationship.

Does this signal the Endgame for the Trucker Protests

Okay okay, we know that this is the fourth week in a row that we’re focusing on the Trucker convoy protests, but we need to cover it one more time as it looks like this may be the last time we’ll have much to say about them. As the federal government deploys one of the most aggressive tools it has to deal with civil unrest, it seems that by this time next week the streets of Ottawa may be completely clear of the convoy.

Last weeks post covered the spread of these protests – more here.

The Emergencies Act

On Monday Prime minister Trudeau held a press conference to announce that his government would be invoking the Emergencies Act in order to deal with the current protests and civil unrest in Ottawa and in other communities across Canada. The Act has been described as the most powerful federal law as it gives the federal government extensive powers to deal with problems that arise during crisis’ that may not be appropriate during normal times. The act can only be invoked during very specific situations and to address very specific types of crisis’, in this case, it’s being invoked to deal with a “Public order”, or civil unrest, crisis.

Under this situation the Act allows the federal government to make it illegal to gather in certain areas and can forbid the use of certain property. More broadly the act allows the federal government to force people or groups to render certain services and allows the government to regulate the distribution of essential goods. Trudeau was careful to say that the Act was not invoked lightly and that its use will be ” specific, limited, responsible and reasonable,”

The main tools that the government said that it will be deploying will be fines and restrictions on gathering in Ottawas downtown core, forcing tow truck companies to help remove the backlog of trucks and cars, and most relevant to truckers, the federal government will be freezing business accounts and revoking insurance for trucking companies that are participating in the protest.

Details of Ontario’s Emergency Act, available here.

The History

The emergencies act in its current form has never been invoked by any previous government. However, the law it was made to replace, the War Measures Act, was last used by the previous Prime Minister Trudeau during the 1970 October Crisis in Quebec. The War Measures act, believe it or not, was more powerful than the Emergencies act of today, and it was also wielded more liberally by Trudeau Sr during the violent separatist movement than it seems this Trudeau plans to wield his powers during this crisis. Though our current situation may not be as extreme as bombings and political kidnappings, many pundits are drawing parallels between our current crisis and the civil unrests of the past

What comes next

With the blockades at the Coutts and Windsor border already clearing due to police action and some protesters leaving on their own, it seems that most of the new powers that the government has invoked will be used to clear out the nation’s capital. There are currently less than 400 vehicles clogging the downtown core of Ottawa, down from 4000 when it first started. Though blocking funding and freezing accounts will no doubt weaken the protests, what you’ll likely be reading about over the next few days will be the direct actions taken by local police and RCMP.

We’re likely to see more aggressive clearing out of protesters as RCMP, who usually stay away from provincial and municipal issues in Ontario, move in to support the local police. After the Ottawa Police Chief stepped down earlier this week, the new interim chief took over stating that the department and the government were still weighing their legal options for deploying the Emergencies Act powers.

With Ottawa authorities and local residents hoping to avoid another weekend like the last two, it’s likely that things will begin to move quickly over the next three days as the federal government begins to action their new powers. Though the government hoped that merely announcing the measures would cause some clearing out, it seems that the remaining protesters are dug-in and won’t budge until all mandates are lifted. With that unlikely to occur anytime soon, it seems that the protesters and government are at a stalemate, one that likely will be broken by force. Now the only questions now are how difficult will removing the protesters be, and what will the fallout be from taking such actions.

Its been nearly a month since the federal government rolled out its federal trucker vaccine mandate and opposition to the rule continues to mount. As the main convoy in Ottawa has reduced in numbers, the remaining protesters are continuing to pester residents and additional trucker protests expand – inspiring similar protests across the country and internationally.

Update on Ottawa

As the protest in Ottawa goes into its 12th day, many protesters have left the area but a small contingent still remains. Roughly 500 vehicles are part of the protest in the Ottawa downtown core and have gone as far as building makeshift shelters for gas and supplies to keep their operation going. Due to the disturbances many businesses in the area, including the Rideau Centre, have remained closed since the protest began. Major museums and some other public spaces have also been closed in response to the protesters. The closures, traffic, and alleged rowdiness of the protesters have pitted many Ottawa residents against the protesters as Ottawers attempt to go about their daily lives. Some pressure was released from the situation when, on Monday, an injunction was granted to halt anyone honking horns in Ottawa. Though Ottawa police are still working to defuse the situation, claiming that there have been 22 arrests, 1300 tickets issued, and 79 ongoing investigations. However, one major factor as to why they haven’t taken more aggressive action is that apparently, 25% of the trucks involved in the protest have children living in them. Police are considering all options In the interest of protecting the 100+ children in the remaining convoy. – more details available here.

Update on Coutts

As the secondary ‘convoy’ at the border crossing in Coutts Alberta enters its 4th day of a border blockade, protesters are still digging in and there is no end in sight. There are still roughly 50 vehicles blocking the border crossing in both directions with police unable to clear out either of the two blockades that have formed. Though earlier this week the protesters cleared one lane of traffic in order for essential travel to continue in one direction, this was short-lived as protesters quickly refilled the single clear lane and once again blocked traffic in both directions.

There was hope that yesterday’s announcement from Alberta premier Jason Kenny would convince protesters to ease the blockade, but these hopes were quickly dashed. The announcement took effect last night at midnight, ending the vaccine passport requirement and growing certain gathering limits. The announcement also included that on March 1st all gathering limits would be dropped and mask mandates ending. This, however, was not enough for the protesters at the Coutts border crossing who say that they’re much more interested, or rather upset with, the federal response and that they won’t move until Prime Minister Trudeau changes his mandates.

It seems as though this is the only way the blockage is going to be cleared at this point as it certainly won’t be by force. Authorities in Coutts, and in Ottawa, have said that local towing companies have been unwilling to assist in removing vehicles at the protest out of fear that it will impact their business now and in the future. Because of the relationship between truckers and heavy-duty tow truck drivers, it’s thought that breaking up the protest by towing away big rigs could cause the towing companies to lose business from the truckers that they typically might work with. – more details available here.

A New Protest – Protesters at the Ambassador Bridge

The most concerning new development in this protesting saga occurred on Monday when protesters in Ontario shut down the Ambassador Bridge, the busiest border crossing in the country. Roughly 200 vehicles, most of which were not transport trucks, locked up traffic in both directions late Monday night. Though a northbound lane was cleared late on Tuesday, traffic into the US is still completely closed off. Currently, drivers are being diverted to a border crossing in Sarnia in order to maintain some travel in the area, but there are still dozens of trucks and cars stuck waiting behind the blockade.

Because the bridge usually facilitates the transport of nearly $50 million worth of goods every day, many business associations on both sides of the border are calling for a swift resolution to the blockade. The most immediate effect has been on auto manufacturing in Windsor, as most plants rely on just-in-time delivery and any reduction in supply could cause the cancellation of shifts. Though many plants have contingencies for these situations, the delay or total blockage of these and other goods entering the country could damage the local economy and have shockwaves throughout the province. – more details available here.

We’ve written similar articles about the protest here.

It’s rare that a story will dominate transportation headlines for three weeks in a row. However, because of the Freedom Convoy 2022, here we are again talking about the new driver vaccine mandate at Canada US border. If you’re not caught up with the story you can read about the controversy and confusion leading up to the mandate HERE, and the initial fallout that occurred last week HERE.

As a brief refresher: on January 15th new rules from the Canadian government came into effect which forced all Canadian unvaccinated truck drivers crossing the border to be vaccinated, less they face a two-week quarantine upon their return. There was a large amount of pushback from industry groups and cross-border carriers to leave truck drivers exempt from the mandate in order to keep the already stressed supply chain from experiencing any more disruptions. For a moment, a few days before the mandate came into effect, the Canada Border Security Agency (CBSA) even put out a statement saying that truckers would be exempt from the mandate, though the federal government walked with statement back within a day and the mandate came into effect as scheduled. When the rule came into effect there were immediate protests and a large “Freedom Convoy” of truckers heading to Ottawa to voice their disdain was quickly organized.

The protest gets rolling

The protest started in western Canada and picked up more drivers as it moved east. The convoy has stopped in a few cities to hold demonstrations, but most of the protest has been a “rolling protest” with drivers driving slowly in packs across major roadways, displaying signs and slogans. Because the convoy is a conglomerate of many smaller protests it’s hard to tell exactly how many truckers are part of the convoy at the moment or how many will make it to Ottawa. Most reports say that only about 10% of drivers in Canada are unvaccinated, however, the protests are also picking up support from non-truck drivers who are tagging along in order to show support for the overall anti-restriction / anti-lockdown message that the convoy represents. There has also been a wave of monetary contributions

Reactions from around the country

Though the protest is gaining steam it seems that the federal government is not blinking in its stance on mandatory vaccines. On Monday Prime Minister Trudeau reaffirmed his focus on the mandates saying”the best way to continue to prevent supply chain disruptions is to ensure that everyone gets vaccinated”.

In addition, a joint statement was released Tuesday from the Minister of Transport, the Minister of Labour, the Minister of Employment, Workforce Development and Disability Inclusion, and the President of the Canadian Trucking Alliance, stressing the need for truckers to get vaccinated. Even opposition leader Erin O’Toole voiced less outright support for driver vaccination, saying “I support getting as many people vaccinated as possible, including truckers”.

There were some comments to the contrary made by members of O’Toole’s party, however. Former Conservative party leader Andrew Scheer said in a social media post: “Thank you Truckers! Trudeau is attacking personal liberty and threatening everyone’s ability to get groceries because of his overreach on vaccine mandates,”. a few other conservative MPs expressed their support for the protests heading to Ottawa, with some even offering to meet with the protestors when they arrive.

When the protestors arrive in Ottawa Tomorrow they may be met with a warmer welcome than initially anticipated. however, its unlikely that even with the support of a few voices in parliament, they’ll be able to make the government budge on their vaccine stance.

Controversy Over Funding

One recent development in the story that has whipped up a lot of press is the Freedom Convoy fundraiser started by Tamara Lich of Medicine Hat. The fundraiser aimed at covering costs for truckers making the trek to Ottawa has raised over 5.1 million dollars as of Wednesday morning and is continuing to grow. The page was briefly shut down for a while earlier this week by go fund me, the site suspended the campaign over concerns that the organizers did not have a clear plan to distribute the money. Organizer Tamara Lich assured donors that they were providing the documents to GoFundMe and the campaign would continue as planned.

One other element of controversy actually stems from the organizer herself. Lich is not a trucker and has no clear direct ties to the industry. However, she has been associated with the controversial Yellow Vest and Wexit Alberta movements. Because the funds are deposited directly into Lich’s bank account upon completion of the fundraiser, many worry about if the funds will be distributed properly and how the organizers will be held accountable.

We’ve written similar articles about these protests here.

Cross border barriers – On Saturday the new rules for Canadian drivers crossing the US/Canada border, which we focused on last week, came into effect. Despite a brief reversal from the CBSA, a reverse reversal by the Trudeau government at the eleventh hour upheld the new rules ensuring that all Canadian truck drivers attempting to return to Canada from the states were vaccinated, less they face a quarantine period that would keep them from work. You can read more about the the issues leading up to the new rule in last weeks blog post HERE

The Fallout: Transportation Protests

One of the expected responses to the new rule was a series of protests from drivers who opposed the new mandate. Drivers took to the roads with signage out and horns honking to signify their disdain for the new health regulations earlier this week. The most prominent protest took place in Manitoba, where several truckers participated in a “slow roll” protest. Their convoy of trucks and support vehicles crawled across major roads in and out of the border crossing, slowing traffic to a near halt. However, a larger protest is starting to gain traction across Canada, accompanied by American support and a GoFundMe campaign, as unvaccinated drivers plan to create a convoy of disgruntled citizens who will be on their way to gather in Ottawa, on parliament hill, later in the week.

The Fallout: Resignations and Incentives for Truckers

A major impact of the new rule was also a wave of resignations from current truck drivers who don’t want to face the new rule when crossing the border. Before the rule came into effect many companies reported drivers leaving in order to dodge the rule and the trend has seemingly continued after the official implementation. Some companies have gone out of their way to combat the new additions to the driver shortage by offering cash bonuses for new vaccinated drivers or offering bonuses to existing unvaccinated drivers if they do choose to get their shots.

Blizzards – Trucking Delays for Canada and the USA Supply Chain

To add to the already strained supply chain, a huge swath of the northeast was covered in snow Sunday night, leading to a whole new batch of delays. South of the border New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania received over a foot of snow which lead to power outages in some cities in the three states.

In Ontario and Quebec, most schools called a snow day on what was supposed to be the first day back to in-person learning this year. Some flights were cancelled due to the conditions at Toronto and Ottawa airports, and many east coast flights were cancelled as the storm continued to make it’s way across the country yesterday. The biggest impact of the storm though was on the roads. Low visibility and roads covered in 25-60 centimetres of snow lead to many accidents, stranded drivers, and roads locked in a standstill.

Some key highways were shutdown in Ontario early on Monday in order for plows to get to work before motorists took to the streets. However, for those routes that were open, most were moving extremely slowly, if at all. Many carriers in Ontario and Quebec decided to “Ground” their fleets in order to avoid the delays, damages and other issues that might come with braving the snow storm. These delays are likely to be felt for the remainder of the week as many shipments that were delayed Monday and Tuesday, get re-booked

If you’re planning on going shopping this week, it might be a good idea to stock up on some fresh fruit and veggies as starting next week they may get even more expensive – thanks to the impact of the vaccine mandate and cross border trade.

That’s because starting Saturday, the Canadian government will require that all non-vaccinated Canadian truck drivers returning to Canada quarantine for 14 days after returning to the country. The new rule, which was announced late last year, will also see the Canadian Border Security Agency (CBSA), turn away any American unvaccinated drivers attempting to enter Canada. This measure, in tandem with rules from the US government taking effect on Jan 22nd, are aimed at reducing the spread of COVID and increasing the number of vaccinated truck drivers, and members of the general public, on both sides of the border. However, the new measures are not without strong critiques.

The push back & possible fallout

Since the rules were announced there has been pushback from countless groups, from Industry advocates and supply chain experts to freight forwarders and individual drivers. One of the loudest opponents of the new mandate has been the Canadian Trucking Alliance (CTA), an association of several provincial trucking groups which lobbies in the interest of Canadian truck drivers. The CTA has projected that 10-20% of the 120,000 Canadian drivers who regularly cross the border will be forced off the job due to the new rules. It’s likely that a similar percentage of the 40,000 US Cross Border drivers will be affected by the rule as well. Industry experts say that these losses would disproportionately harm smaller companies that don’t have the resources or capabilities that large companies have. With two-thirds of Canada-US trade moving by truck, it’s likely that any sort of driver shortage would have ripple effects that could displace millions of dollars of goods.

Government response

Despite trucks crossing freely since the beginning of the pandemic, despite lockdowns, the government’s tone has switched to one much more committed to a stricter inoculation policy. Despite the onslaught of public pushback, the Trudeau government is going ahead with the new rules come hell or high water, though they say the water might not be that high. The government has assured Canadians that they do not expect significant disruptions or shortages as a result of the new mandate. The government also estimates that only 5% of drivers will even be affected by the rule, a far cry from the CTA’s 10-20% estimate.

Takeaway

With an existing shortage of nearly 20,000 cross-border truckers, any impact on the labour supply of drivers will no doubt have an impact on the price and availability of products moving across the border. This isn’t just a concern of the transportation industry either. With the inflation rate already rising to a nearly two-decade high, any increase in the price of transportation will contribute to add to the snowball effects that are growing around the globe. With transportation costs from Asia already rising, as we’ve mentioned before in our newsletter, adding more barriers on the southern border will add pressure to an already squeezed supply chain. Despite the good intentions our fingers are crossed from a last-minute change of heart from the Canadian government in order to keep more essential drivers on the road.

January 13th update

As pressure mounted approaching the mandates roll out the CBSA walked back their position on the mandate, saying that Canadian truckers who are unvaccinated would now be exempt for quarantining after returning from the states. The CBSA did uphold that it would turn away unvaccinated American drivers who try to enter Canada.

See our December Post (Crossborder Vaccine Pushback) for more history on this topic.

In the first week of 2022, we wanted to take a quick look back at 2021 to recap some of the biggest stories of the year.

Suez Stuck 

The beginning of the year was somewhat uneventful as people began to believe that we may be getting back to normal after a very difficult 2020. However, in March we received our first major blow that threw the industry into a panic. After being stuck for less than a week the Evergiven caused massive delays around the globe and caused major economic impacts. The short blockage caused so many issues, many experts say that it is still contributing to equipment shortages and high rates today. – more details covered in the New York Times

Strikes and Shutdowns

Two major delays that affected key transportation infrastructure in 2021 were labour strikes, and port shutdowns. In a year still largely defined by COVID-19, one of the major recurring stories of the year were port shutdowns caused by virus outbreaks. Several ports were forced to partially or completely shut down due to confirmed cases among workers. Meanwhile, the pandemics exposure of major social issues also gave way to a series of strikes from workers unions in everything from manufacturing to tech to transportation. 

BC’s Double Dose of Catastrophe 

This year Canada’s west coast was hit by two separate devastating natural disasters. Over the summer, several areas of BC were continuously plagued by wildfires that caused massive evacuation efforts and millions of dollars of property damage. Unfortunately, there was barely any reprieve for the hardest-hit communities as not long after, waves of flooding struck areas of BC creating more evacuation orders and causing more damage. Certain key infrastructure damaged by the floods took weeks to repair and once again cut off access to a large swath of the country. – We covered more on this in our Dec. 8th post on BC Flooding.

Vaccine Rollout 

One of the positive stories of the year has been the world’s effort to combat the COVID-19 virus through vaccination. In late 2020 and early 2021, several vaccines were approved around the world, and deployment efforts began to inoculate as many people as possible in order to stem the spread of the virus. To date over 9 billion doses of vaccines have been administered globally and millions more are being added to the total every day. – We covered more on this in our Dec. 13th post Crossborder Vaccine Pushback.